daily fantasy nerd FanDuel ceiling charts 2/11/15

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GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.19.36 PM

Reggie Jackson – Inflated: earlier Westbrook/Durant injuries.

Lance Thomas – Bump: Carmelo doubtful.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.19.44 PM

Tobias Harris – Injury: Knee. Out.

Terrence Jones – Warning: 20 minute limit. Questionable with illness.

 

*Score ratio = 67% season ceiling ratio + 33% L10 ceiling ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd FanDuel floor charts 2/11/15

NBA: Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.19.53 PM

John Wall – Warning: away game.

Darren Collison – Injury: Hip. Questionable.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.20.01 PM

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.20.11 PM

Tobias Harris – Injury: Knee. Out.

Draymond Green – Injury: Ankle. Questionable.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 3.20.22 PM

Anthony Davis – Injury: Shoulder. Questionable.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 4.35.42 PM

 

*Score ratio = 67% season floor ratio + 33% L10 floor ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd DraftKings ceiling charts 2/11/15

muhammad_140105_670

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.32.57 PM

Reggie Jackson – Inflated: earlier Westbrook/Durant injuries.

Terrence Jones – Warning: 20 minute limit. Questionable with illness.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.33.06 PM

Bradley Beal – Injury: Toe. Out.

Tobias Harris – Injury: Knee. Out.

 

*Score ratio = 67% season ceiling ratio + 33% L10 ceiling ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd DraftKings floor charts 2/11/15

hi-res-Preview_crop_north

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.33.18 PM

Reggie Jackson – Inflated: earlier Westbrook/Durant injuries.

John Wall – Warning: away game.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.33.28 PM

J.J. Redick – Bump: depressed price.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.33.39 PM

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.33.50 PM

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-10 at 2.34.01 PM

 

*Score ratio = 67% season floor ratio + 33% L10 floor ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd DraftKings floor charts 2/10/15

Harden

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.22.02 PM

Jameer Nelson – Injury: Achilles. Questionable.

Darren Collison – Injury: Hip. Out.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.22.17 PM

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.23.18 PM

Rudy Gay – Injury: Foot. Questionable.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.23.31 PM

Kevin Garnett – Warning: back to back. Doubtful.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.24.38 PM

*Score ratio = 67% season floor ratio + 33% L10 floor ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd DraftKings ceiling charts 2/10/15

Kenneth Faried

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.40.04 PM

Jameer Nelson – Injury: Achilles. Questionable.

Terrence Jones – Warning: 20 minute limit.

Kevin Garnett – Warning: back to back games. Doubtful.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.21.51 PM

 

*Score ratio = 67% season ceiling ratio + 33% L10 ceiling ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd FanDuel floor charts 2/10/15

omer_asik_trevor_ariza_rockets_pelicans_2014_1-660x400

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 4.31.52 PM

Darren Collison – Injury: Hip. Out.

Jameer Nelson – Injury: Achilles. Questionable.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 4.32.01 PM

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 7.59.22 PM

Rudy Gay – Injury: Foot. Questionable.

Gerald Henderson – Bump: Consistent minutes, MKG injury.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 4.32.23 PM

Kevin Garnett – Warning: back to back games. Doubtful.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 4.32.34 PM

 

*Score ratio = 67% season floor ratio + 33% L10 floor ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

daily fantasy nerd FanDuel ceiling charts 2/10/15

Josh Smith

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 6.56.39 PM

Kevin Garnett – Warning: back to back games. Doubtful.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 4.31.42 PM

Terrence Jones – Warning: 20 minutes limit.

Rudy Gay – Injury: Foot. Questionable.

Darren Collison – Injury: Hip. Out.

*Score ratio = 67% season ceiling ratio + 33% L10 ceiling ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!