FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 3-1-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

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PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.10 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets are synonymous with unreliable nowadays and it would take a very brave person to play Lawson at this point. Despite seeing over 30 minutes of playing time in his last 3 games, Lawson exceeded 30 FP only once. The Nuggets’ players seem to have given up on Brian Shaw. Unless you want to be really contrarian, I’d advise against playing Lawson for your own peace of mind.

Isaiah Thomas may have been disappointed when he found himself in a bench role, but he certainly hasn’t let that affect his production. The former Pizza Guy has scored over 29 FP in all of his games as a Celtic and that trend should continue against the Warriors. As a Warriors fan, I’m admittedly scared of IT2 and his ability to light the Warriors up. Since he’s coming off the bench, he’ll also avoid the defensive presence of Bogut which is a plus. IT2’s role seems to be growing for the Celtics and there hasn’t been much of an adjustment period at all. He makes for a solid mid tier play.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.18 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Jason Richardson‘s stats are from a small sample size, but he’s established himself a a key player for the Sixers. He has scored over 20 FP in 3 of the 4 games he has played and is a decent punt play that should knock down a few 3’s.

Ben McLemore is getting more shots with Boogie out and that’s great news for him. The drawback here is that he’ll be facing off against Wesley Matthews. Despite the poor match-up, he’s got a low price tag and makes for a good punt play.

Jimmy Butler is a good DFS play with DRose in and an amazing DFS play when DRose is out. Expect 40 minutes of solid work from Jimmy Minutes and play him with confidence.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.31 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Rudy Gay underwhelmed in his game as the main guy against the Spurs and I expect that will scare off a fair share of DFS players. I’m going back to the well on this one though due to his track record against the Blazers. In his last 4 meetings with Portland, Gay has notched 30+ FP in every game and 40+ FP in 3 of those 4 games. Boogie is currently out and Gay will get a chance to redeem himself. I expect a much better showing this time out.

Draymond Green‘s tenacity on the court leads to a handful of steals and blocks every game and his rebounding ability belies his 6’7″ frame. With a player like BDD, you know he won’t take any plays off. Expect a good number of rebounds, a handful of assists, and some steals and blocks. If his 3 is falling, BDD will easily reach and exceed value.

Andre Iguodala is playing after being rested last game.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.37 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Joffrey Lauvergne‘s stats are from a small sample size. Despite starting last game, he makes for a risky play as does every Nuggets player.

Pau Gasol  is probable with an illness. He should see an expanded offensive role with DRose out. It’s possible that Deandre Jordan will be guarding Pau instead of Spencer Hawes though, which is worrisome.

Serge Ibaka will likely see his role in the offense increase with Russell Westbeast out. His price is very reasonable and he’s got a good match up in the Lakers. Expect a good amount of rebounds and blocks from Air Congo. In the past 2 seasons, the least amount of FP he’s scored against the Lakers is 30 FP.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.44 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Nikola Vucevic has been extremely consistent recently and has strung together 5 straight performances of 33+ FP. Vucevic has played the Hornets 3 times this year and hasn’t scored below 29 FP in any of those games so there’s a decent record of consistency here. In 2 of those 3 games, he exceeded 40 FP. Vucevic isn’t very flashy, but he makes for a safe play.

Andrew Bogut is playing despite being on the front end of a back-to-back.

Enes Kanter is questionable with a thigh contusion.

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