FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 2-28-15


GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.



Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.20.22 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Andrea Bargnani was inserted into the starting lineup in his last game and carried the Knicks to a double OT victory with his impressive double double. The former #1 overall pick racked up 49 FP in 36 minutes of playing time and he jacked up 20 shots. Since that was the Knicks’ first victory in their last 9 games, I’d expect Bargnani to stay in the starting lineup and he should be one of the main offensive weapons going forward. If you buy into the revenge game factor, the Knicks are also playing the Raptors. The minutes, opportunity, and price are all too favorable to overlook Bargnani.

Kris Humphries is out with a groin strain.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.20.33 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Rajon Rondo is playing coming off of a one game suspension. It’s never good to have a rift between a player and a coach though. Rondo may see depressed minutes even though he’s playing. This play seems ultra risky to me and Rondo’s recent production doesn’t seem to justify that risk.

Tyson Chandler is questionable with a hip contusion.

Danny Green has the potential to put up FP in a hurry via 3 pointers, steals, and blocks. The only question with him is: how many minutes will he see? In the past 2 games, Green has seen 32 and 12 minutes of playing time making him a risky play. However, Danny Green has 40 FP upside whenever he’s on the court. He’s a bit pricey on FanDuel, but this game has the highest over/under of the night and the risk may be worth it.

Brook Lopez has scored over 26 FP in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen 12 or more FGA in all 5 of those games. In his last game against the Mavs, Lopez put up 46 FP. He has a relatively high floor for a player with such high potential and the rewards seem to be well worth the risks for BroLo.

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