GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.
When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.
Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.
We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.
Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.
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Bargain Bin (< $5,000)
Joffrey Lauvergne – Note: small sample size.
Jason Richardson – Note: small sample size. Seeing minutes in the mid 20’s.
Andrea Bargnani – Note: small sample size. Seeing minutes in the mid 20’s. He’ll make sure that he gets his fair share of looks while he’s out there.
Corey Brewer has had over 35 FP in 2 of his last 3 games with Harden playing. Harden is currently questionable with a sprained ankle and, if Harden is out, Brewer stands to gain more minutes and looks.
Mid + (> $5,000)
Mo Williams’ minutes took a dip last game, but prior to that he was seeing 38 minutes per game. The Hornets will be playing up in pace against the Celtics, but Williams will have to square off against a great defender in Marcus Smart. The shots and opportunities will be there for him though and he’s a bargain priced starting point guard.
Lou Williams is a boom or bust option that comes off the bench to do one thing: score. The Warriors/Raptors game has an initial over/under of 215 with a spread of 1. I could easily see the Raptors relying on their bench for scoring against the Warriors top rated defense.
Although Mario Chalmers’ production has fallen off lately, he’s still seeing over 30 minutes of playing time every game (barring foul trouble). As a GPP dart, Rio can rack up the FP in steals and 3 pointers. He’s a risky play given his spot in the Heat pecking order, but the opportunity is there.
*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value
For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, odds, season and recent performance, values, and much more!