DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 3-1-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.10.24 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets are synonymous with unreliable nowadays and it would take a very brave person to play Lawson at this point. Despite seeing over 30 minutes of playing time in his last 3 games, Lawson exceeded 30 FP only once. The Nuggets’ players seem to have given up on Brian Shaw. Unless you want to be really contrarian, I’d advise against playing Lawson for your own peace of mind.

Tyreke Evans has notched 3 straight double double’s of points and assists and is enjoying his role as the primary ball handler for the Pelicans. He gets to match up against the aforementioned slumping Nuggets and will look to have a huge game against them. The worry here is whether the Nuggets will simply roll over for the Pelicans, but New Orleans will still be without the Brow and Ryan Anderson so hopefully this one can stay close. Reke has scored over 38 FP in his 3 past games and he’s one of my favorite plays.

Isaiah Thomas may have been disappointed when he found himself in a bench role, but he certainly hasn’t let that affect his production. The former Pizza Guy has scored over 33 FP in all of his games as a Celtic and that trend should continue against the Warriors. As a Warriors fan, I’m admittedly scared of IT2 and his ability to light the Warriors up. Since he’s coming off the bench, he’ll also avoid the defensive presence of Bogut which is a plus. IT2’s role seems to be growing for the Celtics and there hasn’t been much of an adjustment period at all. He makes for a solid mid tier play.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.01 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Jason Richardson‘s stats are from a small sample size, but he’s established himself a a key player for the Sixers. He has scored over 23 FP in 3 of the 4 games he has played and is a decent punt play that should knock down a few 3’s.

Ben McLemore is getting more shots with Boogie out and that’s great news for him. The drawback here is that he’ll be facing off against Wesley Matthews. Despite the poor match-up, he’s priced barely above minimum and makes for a good punt play.

Jimmy Butler is a good DFS play with DRose in and an amazing DFS play when DRose is out. Expect 40 minutes of solid work from Jimmy Minutes and play him with confidence.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.11 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

LeBron James is playing after being rested for a sore back.

Andre Iguodala is playing after being rested last game.

Solomon Hill is questionable with an illness.

Joffrey Lauvergne‘s stats are from a small sample size. Despite starting last game, he makes for a risky play as does every Nuggets player.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.21 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Pau Gasol  is probable with an illness. He should see an expanded offensive role with DRose out. It’s possible that Deandre Jordan will be guarding Pau instead of Spencer Hawes though, which is worrisome.

Draymond Green‘s tenacity on the court leads to a handful of steals and blocks every game and his rebounding ability belies his 6’7″ frame. With a player like BDD, you know he won’t take any plays off. Expect a good number of rebounds, a handful of assists, and some steals and blocks. If his 3 is falling, BDD will easily reach and exceed value.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.47.56 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Robin Lopez‘s price has fallen below 4k despite playing the same amount of minutes he did earlier in the year. As a reference, he was priced in the 5-6k range back in the day. RoLo has the added advantage of not having to defend Boogie and I expect he’ll easily pay off his low salary. This discount is too appealing to pass up in my eyes.

Andrew Bogut is playing on the front end of a back-to-back.

Nikola Vucevic has been extremely consistent recently and has strung together 5 straight performances of 35+ FP. Vucevic has played the Hornets 3 times this year and hasn’t scored below 30 FP in any of those games so there’s a decent record of consistency here. In 2 of those 3 games, he exceeded 40 FP. Vucevic isn’t very flashy, but he makes for a safe play.

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