DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 2-28-15

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GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.

 

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Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.12.21 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Manu Ginobili has been seeing less minutes lately relative to his season average. Earlier in the season, he saw somewhere between 25-30 minutes and now he’s sitting squarely around 20 minutes per game. On a back end of a back-to-back, it’s possible Ginobili will be Pop’d. Buyer beware.

Danny Green has the potential to put up FP in a hurry via 3 pointers, steals, and blocks. The only question with him is: how many minutes will he see? In the past 2 games, Green has seen 32 and 12 minutes of playing time making him a risky play. However, Danny Green has 40 FP upside whenever he’s on the court and it may be worth the risk to roster him.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.37.46 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Brandon Knight‘s playing time has been solid with his new team, yet his production has been down compared to his days with the Bucks. Ceding the main ball handling responsibilities to Eric Bledsoe has certainly cut down on his stats, but the opportunity is still there for him to blow up given a hot game. Just keep in mind that most of the stats you see above are inflated for when Knight was the top dog in Milwaukee.

Jeff Teague is OUT and being rested.

Tim Duncan is in danger of being Pop’d on the back end of a back-to-back. Keep an eye out for news from the Spurs.

Brook Lopez has scored over 30 FP in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen 12 or more FGA in all 5 of those games. In his last game against the Mavs, Lopez put up 49 FP. He has a relatively high floor for a player with such high potential and the rewards seem to be well worth the risks for BroLo.

Rajon Rondo is playing coming off of a one game suspension. It’s never good to have a rift between a player and a coach though. Rondo may see depressed minutes even though he’s playing. This play seems ultra risky to me and Rondo’s recent production doesn’t seem to justify that risk.

Check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

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