daily fantasy nerd DraftKings ceiling charts 2/11/15


GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.



Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

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Reggie Jackson – Inflated: earlier Westbrook/Durant injuries.

Terrence Jones – Warning: 20 minute limit. Questionable with illness.

Mid + (> $5,000)

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Bradley Beal – Injury: Toe. Out.

Tobias Harris – Injury: Knee. Out.


*Score ratio = 67% season ceiling ratio + 33% L10 ceiling ratio

For further analysis, check out our free player data and lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, Odds, Season and Recent performance, Ratios, and much more!

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