DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 3-29-15

Devin-Harris(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling value (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling value, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling value.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.27.46 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Devin Harris gets a bump with Monta Ellis likely being out.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.28.02 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Deron Williams is questionable with an illness.

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

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DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 3-29-15

russell-westbrook-nba-playoffs-memphis-grizzlies-oklahoma-city-thunder(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor value (floor divided by price). The higher the floor value, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor value.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.28.13 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Brandon Knight is questionable with a sprained ankle.

Deron Williams is questionable with an illness.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.28.23 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Dwyane Wade is questionable with a knee contusion.

Monta Ellis is doubtful with a bruised right calf.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.28.54 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Tony Allen is questionable with a strained hammy.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.40.37 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

David West is probable with an illness.

C

Screen Shot 2015-03-28 at 11.29.15 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

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FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 3-28-15

Trevor+Booker+Cleveland+Cavaliers+v+Utah+Jazz+vy43f08pDfpl(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling value (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling value, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling value.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.36.12 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Kyle Korver is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Trevor Booker is likely getting the start with Derrick Favors doubtful against the Thunder. In the last 3 games with Favors out, Booker didn’t start or play more than 26 minutes which is a bummer. But all 3 of those games were also when the Jazz had Kanter. Utah will likely rely more heavily upon Booker now with their lighter frontcourt and that’s great news for a player priced at the minimum. Booker makes for a good punt play.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.36.30 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Ty Lawson has scored over 35 FP in 3 of his last 4 games. Lawson doesn’t take many shots, so he makes most of his FP on assists and efficient shooting. The concern here is an off shooting night along with lower minutes relative to his season average. Over his last 2 games, Lawson hasn’t seen above 33 minutes whereas his season average is 35 minutes. On the bright side, Lawson has scored 48 FP, 47 FP, and 39 FP on the Blazers this season and his track record and price make him an excellent play at PG.

Trey Burke potentially gets the the start pending Dante Exum’s status. Exum didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Nuggets due to illness allowing Burke to start for the Jazz in the 2nd half. Exum’s absence would likely net Burke some additional minutes along with the starting role. Rodney Hood is also questionable and his absence would also give Burke some additional run. Although these scenarios bump Burke’s value, I like Schroder more if Teague is out. Keep an eye on news out of Utah.

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

tumblr_mf19t9eX3R1r68cfpo1_500(1)

FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 3-28-15

103012_Lawson(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor value (floor divided by price). The higher the floor value, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor value.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.36.40 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson has scored over 35 FP in 3 of his last 4 games. Lawson doesn’t take many shots, so he makes most of his FP on assists and efficient shooting. The concern here is an off shooting night along with lower minutes relative to his season average. Over his last 2 games, Lawson hasn’t seen above 33 minutes whereas his season average is 35 minutes. On the bright side, Lawson has scored 48 FP, 47 FP, and 39 FP on the Blazers this season and his track record and price make him an excellent play at PG.

Trey Burke potentially gets the the start pending Dante Exum’s status. Exum didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Nuggets due to illness allowing Burke to start for the Jazz in the 2nd half. Exum’s absence would likely net Burke some additional minutes along with the starting role. Rodney Hood is also questionable and his absence would also give Burke some additional run. Although these scenarios bump Burke’s value, I like Schroder more if Teague is out. Keep an eye on news out of Utah.

Update: Jeff Teague is out.

Dennis Schroder makes for a great option if Teague has to sit another game with a sprained ankle. Against the Heat, Schroder put up 32 FP in 32 minutes of work in Teague’s absence. 30 FP is a reasonable expectation in the event Schroder gets the start. Keep an eye on Teague’s status.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.36.52 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Kyle Korver is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.36.59 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Gordon Hayward likely inherits more responsibility on offense with Derrick Favors doubtful for the game against the Thunder. Also questionable is Dante Exum, which may push the more offensively aggressive Trey Burke into the starting lineup soaking up some of the shots left by Favors. On the season, Hayward has scored 38 FP, 38 FP, and 23 FP against the Thunder showing his upside as well as his volatility. In a game with a 2.5 spread without Favors, Hayward should have a great impact against the Thunder.

Draymond Green is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

DeMarre Carroll is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out with a sprained ankle.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.37.09 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Paul Millsap is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

La-“Marc-Gasol”-dridge put up 27 points against the Suns, showing little ill effects from his sprained finger. He now gets a matchup with the Nuggets who have struggled defending PF’s on the season. In this season’s 3 contests against the Nuggets, LMA has scored 57 FP, 36 FP, and 47 FP which gives him a good track record against the Nuggs. The only real threat here is due to blowout with the Blazers being favored by 9. However, LMA’s matchup and track record make him a great top dollar play at PF.

Trevor Booker is likely getting the start with Derrick Favors doubtful against the Thunder. In the last 3 games with Favors out, Booker didn’t start or play more than 26 minutes which is a bummer. But all 3 of those games were also when the Jazz had Kanter. Utah will likely rely more heavily upon Booker now with their lighter frontcourt and that’s great news for a player priced at the minimum. Booker makes for a good punt play.

C

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 10.37.18 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Al Horford is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Enes Kanter has been a key piece for the Thunder without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Kanter has been a consistent scoring option for the Thunder and he’s been great on the boards for them as well. He has grabbed double digit rebounds in 8 straight games helping the Thunder take care of the glass. He gets a revenge game against his old team in Utah now and he should have a bit more motivation to perform. Kanter is listed as a C, but he actually starts at the PF position with Steven Adams playing the 5. Derrick Favors is a superb defender, but he’s doubtful for the game with back spasms. Trevor Booker, on the other hand, ranks 89th out of 96 PF’s in DRPM (defensive real plus minus) per ESPN and there will be little defense played between Kanter and Booker. Kanter’s price has went up and the Thunder will be playing down in pace, but he’s got a lot going for him in this game against Utah and he makes a great choice at C.

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

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DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 3-28-15

103012_Lawson(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling value (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling value, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling value.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.09.36 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Kyle Korver is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.09.44 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Al Jefferson has scored over 40 FP in back to back games, yet his price remains in the mid 6k’s. On paper, he draws a tough matchup against the Hawks. However, Al Horford is questionable on the back end of a back-to-back. Horford’s absence would make things easier for Big Al and he would make a great bargain play in this scenario. Keep an eye on Al Horford’s status.

Trey Burke potentially gets the the start pending Dante Exum’s status. Exum didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Nuggets due to illness allowing Burke to start for the Jazz in the 2nd half. Exum’s absence would likely net Burke some additional minutes along with the starting role. Rodney Hood is also questionable and his absence would also give Burke some additional run. Although these scenarios bump Burke’s value, I like Schroder more if Teague is out. Keep an eye on news out of Utah.

Ty Lawson has scored over 35 FP in 3 of his last 4 games. Lawson doesn’t take many shots, so he makes most of his FP on assists and efficient shooting. The concern here is an off shooting night along with lower minutes relative to his season average. Over his last 2 games, Lawson hasn’t seen above 33 minutes whereas his season average is 35 minutes. On the bright side, Lawson has scored 53 FP, 50 FP, and 43 FP on the Blazers this season and his track record and price make him an excellent play at PG.

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

tumblr_mf19t9eX3R1r68cfpo1_500(1)

DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 3-28-15

103012_Lawson(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor value (floor divided by price). The higher the floor value, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor value.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.09.55 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson has scored over 35 FP in 3 of his last 4 games. Lawson doesn’t take many shots, so he makes most of his FP on assists and efficient shooting. The concern here is an off shooting night along with lower minutes relative to his season average. Over his last 2 games, Lawson hasn’t seen above 33 minutes whereas his season average is 35 minutes. On the bright side, Lawson has scored 53 FP, 50 FP, and 43 FP on the Blazers this season and his track record and price make him an excellent play at PG.

Trey Burke potentially gets the the start pending Dante Exum’s status. Exum didn’t play in the 2nd half against the Nuggets due to illness allowing Burke to start for the Jazz in the 2nd half. Exum’s absence would likely net Burke some additional minutes along with the starting role. Rodney Hood is also questionable and his absence would also give Burke some additional run. Although these scenarios bump Burke’s value, I like Schroder more if Teague is out. Keep an eye on news out of Utah.

Update: Jeff Teague is out.

Dennis Schroder makes for a great option if Teague has to sit another game with a sprained ankle. Against the Heat, Schroder put up 34 FP in 32 minutes of work in Teague’s absence. 30 FP is a reasonable expectation in the event Schroder gets the start. Keep an eye on Teague’s status.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.10.05 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Kyle Korver is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.10.15 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Gordon Hayward likely inherits more responsibility on offense with Derrick Favors doubtful for the game against the Thunder. Also questionable is Dante Exum, which may push the more offensively aggressive Trey Burke into the starting lineup soaking up some of the shots left by Favors. On the season, Hayward has scored 42 FP, 43 FP, and 23 FP against the Thunder showing his upside as well as his volatility. In a game with a 2.5 spread without Favors, Hayward should have a great impact against the Thunder.

DeMarre Carroll is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out with a sprained ankle.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.10.24 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Paul Millsap is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

La-“Marc-Gasol”-dridge put up 27 points against the Suns, showing little ill effects from his sprained finger. He now gets a matchup with the Nuggets who have struggled defending PF’s on the season. In this season’s 3 contests against the Nuggets, LMA has scored 59 FP, 37 FP, and 49 FP which gives him a good track record against the Nuggs. The only real threat here is due to blowout with the Blazers being favored by 9. However, LMA’s matchup and price make him a great top dollar play at PF.

Draymond Green is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

C

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.10.37 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Al Horford is out on the back end of a back-to-back.

Al Jefferson has scored over 40 FP in back to back games, yet his price remains in the mid 6k’s. On paper, he draws a tough matchup against the Hawks. However, Al Horford is questionable on the back end of a back-to-back. Horford’s absence would make things easier for Big Al and he would make a great bargain play in this scenario. Keep an eye on Al Horford’s status.

Enes Kanter has been a key piece for the Thunder without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Kanter has been a consistent scoring option for the Thunder and he’s been great on the boards for them as well. He has grabbed double digit rebounds in 8 straight games helping the Thunder take care of the glass. He gets a revenge game against his old team in Utah now and he should have a bit more motivation to perform. Kanter is listed as a C, but he actually starts at the PF position with Steven Adams playing the 5. Derrick Favors is a superb defender, but he’s doubtful for the game with back spasms. Trevor Booker, on the other hand, ranks 89th out of 96 PF’s in DRPM (defensive real plus minus) per ESPN and there will be little defense played between Kanter and Booker. Kanter’s price has went up and the Thunder will be playing down in pace, but he’s got a lot going for him in this game against Utah and he makes a great choice at C.

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

tumblr_mf19t9eX3R1r68cfpo1_500(1)

FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 3-27-15

Kyle-Korver-Continues-to-Impress

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling value (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling value, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling value.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.53.16 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Kyle Korver is priced favorably and makes for a good value play at SG. The Heat have struggled defending the 3 point line this season and Korver has capitalized scoring over 26 FP in all 3 of the Hawks’ contests against the Heat this season.

Mario Chalmers could be in line for huge minutes again with Dwyane Wade doubtful. Chalmers played 36 minutes with Wade out last game and he had plenty of opportunity to produce (which he unfortunately did not). Keep an eye on Wade’s status.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.53.22 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Jeff Teague is out with a sprained ankle.

Josh Smith could receive more minutes with Terrence Jones out and Donatas Motiejunas questionable. JSmoove is only priced at 5.5k and that would be a bargain for his upside with 30+ minutes. This game against the TWolves could get out of hand early, but that would play in JSmoove’s favor in the event that D-Mo plays. Keep an eye on Motiejunas’ status.

Trey Burke has taken advantage of the absence of Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward and he’s played back-to-back games of over 35 minutes, scoring over 29 FP in each contest. Prior to that, the last time Burke received 30 minutes of playing time was in early March. Hayward is probable for the game and Hood has already been ruled out. Burke will probably see over 30 minutes again, but Hayward will take a healthy chunk of shots back with his return.

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

tumblr_mf19t9eX3R1r68cfpo1_500(1)

FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 3-27-15

Marc-Gasol-game-winning-block.(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor value (floor divided by price). The higher the floor value, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor value.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.53.32 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Goran Dragic‘s value gets a bump if Dwyane Wade is out. Keep an eye on Wade’s status.

Jeff Teague is out with a sprained ankle.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.53.40 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Dwyane Wade is doubtful with a bruised knee.

DeMar DeRozan gets to take on his hometown Lakers and their lax defense vs SG’s. As an extra kicker, Kyle Lowry is ruled out of this game which should give more touches to DDR. His price has risen to 7.7k which makes him a bit less appealing, but I like the idea of paying up for DeRozan against the soft defense of the Lakers sans Lowry.

Kyle Korver is priced favorably and makes for a good value play at SG. The Heat have struggled defending the 3 point line this season and Korver has capitalized scoring over 26 FP in all 3 of the Hawks’ contests against the Heat this season.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.53.50 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Gordon Hayward is probable with a sprained shoulder.

Kawhi Leonard gets a favorable matchup against the Mavs who have struggled against small forwards this season. Kawhi scores FP in every way possible due to his versatility and his ability to rack up steals and blocks is a great asset. The risk with the former Finals MVP is the amount of playing time Pop decides to allot him. If Kawhi can get roughly 35 minutes, he makes a good play at SF despite his high price.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.59.29 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Greg Monroe is out with a strained knee.

Josh Smith could receive more minutes with Terrence Jones out and Donatas Motiejunas questionable. JSmoove is only priced at 5.5k and that would be a bargain for his upside with 30+ minutes. This game against the TWolves could get out of hand early, but that would play in JSmoove’s favor in the event that D-Mo plays. Keep an eye on Motiejunas’ status.

C

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 7.54.09 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Marc Gasol is the posterboy for a cash play at center. In the last 2 seasons against the Warriors, the lowest FP total Marc has tallied is 31 FP and that’s a reasonable worst case scenario for him. On paper, Gasol draws a difficult matchup against the Warriors who have been effective against centers lately. However, as a Warriors fan, I believe Marc Gasol’s midrange game will render Bogut less effective. I think Gasol will be the Grizzlies’ release valve for most of the night whether he’s draining jumpers or making plays for his teammates at the top of the key. Gasol makes for a safe play at center.

DeMarcus Cousins has scored over 45 FP in both prior meetings with the Pelicans this season and there’s a good chance he makes it 3/3. Boogie won’t come cheap and there’s always risk with him due to his propensity to lose his cool, often resulting in foul. However, Boogie has one of the highest ceilings available and the only one who can stop him is himself.

Al Jefferson is probable with a sore knee.

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

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DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 3-27-15

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GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling value (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling value, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling value.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

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DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.46.28 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Mason Plumlee should get a bump in minutes with Thaddeus Young out. You shouldn’t expect anything crazy, but Plumlee comes cheap at near minimum price and would be a decent punt play at C.

Mario Chalmers could be in line for huge minutes again with Dwyane Wade doubtful. Chalmers played 36 minutes with Wade out last game and he had plenty of opportunity to produce (which he unfortunately did not). Keep an eye on Wade’s status.

Jason Smith isn’t the flashiest of plays, but he should see 20-25 minutes against the weak frontcourt of the Celtics. In his 3 previous games against the Celtics this season, he scored 32 FP, 28 FP, and 22 FP. Any of those results would be plenty of value given Smith’s minimum price.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.46.39 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Brandon Knight is questionable with a sprained ankle.

Jeff Teague is out with a sprained ankle.

Al Jefferson is probable with a sore knee.

Jordan Clarkson has benefited with more playing time as the Lakers “give more opportunities to the younger players”, aka tank. Clarkson has played over 35 minutes in both of his last games (which includes an OT victory over the TWolves) and he has scored over 30 FP in both games. Clarkson should continue to see over 30 minutes of playing time against the Raptors who have struggled defending point guards this season. He’s a great value play with good upside and he’s one of my favorite plays of the day.

Trey Burke has taken advantage of the absence of Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward and he’s played back-to-back games of over 35 minutes, scoring over 30 FP in each contest. Prior to that, the last time Burke received 30 minutes of playing time was in early March. Hayward is probable for the game and Hood has already been ruled out. Burke will probably see over 30 minutes again, but Hayward will take a healthy chunk of shots back with his return.

Brook Lopez has scored over 40 FP in 3 of his last 4 games which makes him a bargain priced at 7.1k. He has played over 30 minutes in 5 straight games and his role for the Nets seems to have stabilized. There is some blowout risk here with the Cavs favored at 8.5, so he’s not a complete plug and play. However, his price and recent production make BroLo a great play at C.

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

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DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 3-27-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor value (floor divided by price). The higher the floor value, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor value.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.46.48 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Brandon Knight is questionable with a sprained ankle.

Jeff Teague is out with a sprained ankle.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.46.57 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Dwyane Wade is doubtful with a bruised knee.

Kyle Korver is priced favorably and makes for a good value play at SG. The Heat have struggled defending the 3 point line this season and Korver has capitalized scoring over 29 FP in all 3 of the Hawks’ contests against the Heat this season.

DeMar DeRozan gets to take on his hometown Lakers and their lax defense vs SG’s. As an extra kicker, Kyle Lowry is ruled out of this game which should give more touches to DDR. His price has risen to 7.8k which makes him a bit less appealing, but I like the idea of paying up for DeRozan against the soft defense of the Lakers sans Lowry.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.47.06 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Gordon Hayward is probable with a sprained shoulder.

Kawhi Leonard gets a favorable matchup against the Mavs who have struggled against small forwards this season. Kawhi scores FP in every way possible due to his versatility and his ability to rack up steals and blocks is a great asset. The risk with the former Finals MVP is the amount of playing time Pop decides to allot him. If Kawhi can get roughly 35 minutes, I love him at SF despite his relatively high price.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.47.14 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Paul Millsap‘s price is favorable and he hasn’t scored below 30 FP against the Heat in the past 2 seasons. The Heat have been stingy against PF’s on the season, but their DvP ranking has fallen lately which weighs in Millsap’s favor. He makes for a solid cash play at PF.

Greg Monroe is out with a strained knee.

C

Screen Shot 2015-03-26 at 6.47.24 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Marc Gasol is the posterboy for a cash play at center. As evidenced in the table above, Gasol rarely scores below 4x value which would be 30 FP at his current price. In the last 2 seasons against the Warriors, the lowest FP total Marc has tallied is 33 FP and that’s a reasonable worst case scenario for him. On paper, Gasol draws a difficult matchup against the Warriors who have been effective against centers lately. However, as a Warriors fan, I believe Marc Gasol’s midrange game will render Bogut less effective. I think Gasol will be the Grizzlies’ release valve for most of the night whether he’s draining jumpers or making plays for his teammates at the top of the key. I’ve got Gasol in the majority of my lineups.

DeMarcus Cousins has scored over 50 FP in both prior meetings with the Pelicans this season and there’s a good chance he makes it 3/3. Boogie won’t come cheap and there’s always risk with him due to his propensity to lose his cool, often resulting in foul. However, Boogie has one of the highest ceilings available and the only one who can stop him is himself.

Al Jefferson is probable with a sore knee.

Mason Plumlee should get a bump in minutes with Thaddeus Young out. You shouldn’t expect anything crazy, but Plumlee comes cheap at near minimum price and would be a decent punt play at C.

For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more:

Build Optimal Lineups - FREE

 

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