GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.
When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.
Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.
We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.
Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.
Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.
Bargain Bin (< $5,000)
I like Corey Brewer, Lou Williams, and Danny Green the most in that order. Corey Brewer has had over 35 FP in 2 of his last 3 games with Harden playing. Harden is currently questionable with a sprained ankle and, if Harden is out, Brewer stands to gain more minutes and looks. Lou Williams is a boom or bust option that comes off the bench to do one thing: score. The Warriors/Raptors game has an initial over/under of 215 with a spread of 1. I could easily see the Raptors relying on their bench for scoring against the Warriors top rated defense. Danny Green was seeing less minutes in his last few games until busting out with 32 minutes against the Trailblazers. Priced at $4k and seeing that amount of time, Danny Green is an enticing option.
Keep an eye on Marreese Speights depending on Bogut’s availability against the Raptors. Steve Kerr said that he wanted to rest Bogut and Iguodala at some point during this 6 game road trip. Given that the game against the Raptors are on the back end of a back-to-back, Bogut and Iguodala may not see the court on Friday. If that were the case, Speights will get more run and, if he touches the ball, you can be sure that he’s shooting it.
Mid + (> $5,000)
Kenneth Faried – Probable: thumb.
Gorgui Dieng‘s minutes are in flux recently ranging between 25-37 minutes in his last 3 games. I personally think he’s a bit too risky, but one can speculate that the TWolves will need more size to match up with the Bulls and give Dieng more minutes as a result.
Marcin Gortat has a soft match up against the 76ers who are ranked in the bottom of the league in DvP for centers. This game could get out of hand early. But, if it stays close, Gortat could return great value.
You don’t have to check your eyes, Jeff Teague is actually priced at $6,300. He has only been seeing minutes in the mid 20’s as of late which justifies his falling price. The Hawks/Magic game has a spread of 11 currently – buyer beware.
*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value
For further analysis, check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, odds, season and recent performances, values, and much more!