FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 3-1-15

PI-NBA-Charlotte-Hornets-Mo-Williams-022115.vadapt.620.high.0(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.59.53 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Mike Dunleavy exploded for 39 FP last game against the TWolves. A large factor of his impressive performance was due to the fact that Pau Gasol was out with an illness and Taj Gibson, much to the dismay of ~80% of the DFS community, went down with an injury early into the game. This left Dunleavy with a good amount of looks and he made good on them. In fact, his 18 (!) FGA only trailed behind Jimmy Minutes’ 19. Pau will return in this game against the Clippers which will diminish Dunleavy’s role once again. However, Dunleavy is still priced barely above minimum salary and can light it up from deep to hit value early on. In the past 2 seasons against the Clippers, the least amount of FP Dunleavy has scored against the Clips is 18 FP.

Nikola Mirotic will most likely be the primary back up big man behind Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah with Taj Gibson doubtful. As evidenced by his 31 FP outburst, Mirotic can rack up the stats with the best of them and he’s nearly minimum priced. He makes for a great punt play with a good upside.

Joffrey Lauvergne‘s stats are from a small sample size. Despite starting last game, he makes for a risky play as does every Nuggets player.

Evan Fournier is out with a sore hip.

Darrell Arthur is questionable with a strained knee.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.01 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Mo Williams nearly dropped 45 FP in his last game and he’s loving his role on the Hornets. In his 4 games playing for the Hornets the least amount of shots he’s taken is 15! John Legend will look to score early and often against the Magic and he’s one of my favorite high floor and high upside plays.

Rodney Stuckey lit up the Sixers to the tune of 42 FP in his last meeting and he’ll look to keep the pedal to the metal. He’s scored over 33 FP in 3 of his last 4 games and his bench role hasn’t kept him from producing solid value. Stuckey is one of the Pacers’ go to guys for offense and he’ll get his fair share of looks. The spread of 11.5 is a bit scary, but Stuckey’s consistent 40+ FP upside makes him a solid GPP dart.

George Hill‘s triple double was a pleasant surprise to see the least. In the past couple of games, Hill has made up for lost time this season returning 32+ FP in both games. Hill gets the seemingly favorable match-up against the Sixers in this game, but he didn’t fair too well against them last time and only put up 15 FP in 23 minutes of playing time. However, Hill is in rhythm right now and, if you believe this game will stay closer than the predicted spread of 11.5, he could pay off in a big way.

Check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 3-1-15

USATSI_7624571_crop_north(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.10 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets are synonymous with unreliable nowadays and it would take a very brave person to play Lawson at this point. Despite seeing over 30 minutes of playing time in his last 3 games, Lawson exceeded 30 FP only once. The Nuggets’ players seem to have given up on Brian Shaw. Unless you want to be really contrarian, I’d advise against playing Lawson for your own peace of mind.

Isaiah Thomas may have been disappointed when he found himself in a bench role, but he certainly hasn’t let that affect his production. The former Pizza Guy has scored over 29 FP in all of his games as a Celtic and that trend should continue against the Warriors. As a Warriors fan, I’m admittedly scared of IT2 and his ability to light the Warriors up. Since he’s coming off the bench, he’ll also avoid the defensive presence of Bogut which is a plus. IT2’s role seems to be growing for the Celtics and there hasn’t been much of an adjustment period at all. He makes for a solid mid tier play.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.18 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Jason Richardson‘s stats are from a small sample size, but he’s established himself a a key player for the Sixers. He has scored over 20 FP in 3 of the 4 games he has played and is a decent punt play that should knock down a few 3’s.

Ben McLemore is getting more shots with Boogie out and that’s great news for him. The drawback here is that he’ll be facing off against Wesley Matthews. Despite the poor match-up, he’s got a low price tag and makes for a good punt play.

Jimmy Butler is a good DFS play with DRose in and an amazing DFS play when DRose is out. Expect 40 minutes of solid work from Jimmy Minutes and play him with confidence.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.31 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Rudy Gay underwhelmed in his game as the main guy against the Spurs and I expect that will scare off a fair share of DFS players. I’m going back to the well on this one though due to his track record against the Blazers. In his last 4 meetings with Portland, Gay has notched 30+ FP in every game and 40+ FP in 3 of those 4 games. Boogie is currently out and Gay will get a chance to redeem himself. I expect a much better showing this time out.

Draymond Green‘s tenacity on the court leads to a handful of steals and blocks every game and his rebounding ability belies his 6’7″ frame. With a player like BDD, you know he won’t take any plays off. Expect a good number of rebounds, a handful of assists, and some steals and blocks. If his 3 is falling, BDD will easily reach and exceed value.

Andre Iguodala is playing after being rested last game.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.37 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Joffrey Lauvergne‘s stats are from a small sample size. Despite starting last game, he makes for a risky play as does every Nuggets player.

Pau Gasol  is probable with an illness. He should see an expanded offensive role with DRose out. It’s possible that Deandre Jordan will be guarding Pau instead of Spencer Hawes though, which is worrisome.

Serge Ibaka will likely see his role in the offense increase with Russell Westbeast out. His price is very reasonable and he’s got a good match up in the Lakers. Expect a good amount of rebounds and blocks from Air Congo. In the past 2 seasons, the least amount of FP he’s scored against the Lakers is 30 FP.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.00.44 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Nikola Vucevic has been extremely consistent recently and has strung together 5 straight performances of 33+ FP. Vucevic has played the Hornets 3 times this year and hasn’t scored below 29 FP in any of those games so there’s a decent record of consistency here. In 2 of those 3 games, he exceeded 40 FP. Vucevic isn’t very flashy, but he makes for a safe play.

Andrew Bogut is playing despite being on the front end of a back-to-back.

Enes Kanter is questionable with a thigh contusion.

Check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 3-1-15

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GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.14.31 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Mike Dunleavy exploded for 42 FP last game against the TWolves. A large factor of his impressive performance was due to the fact that Pau Gasol was out with an illness and Taj Gibson, much to the dismay of ~80% of the DFS community, went down with an injury early into the game. This left Dunleavy with a good amount of looks and he made good on them. In fact, his 18 (!) FGA only trailed behind Jimmy Minutes’ 19. Pau will return in this game against the Clippers which will diminish Dunleavy’s role once again. However, Dunleavy is still priced barely above minimum salary and can light it up from deep to hit value early on. In the past 2 seasons against the Clippers, the least amount of FP Dunleavy has scored against the Clips is 21 FP.

Jeremy Lin has been playing well lately and has exceeded 29 FP in 2 of his last 3 games. Ronnie Price is out after having surgery on his elbow and that leaves the PG responsibilities to Clarkson and JLin. Although he doesn’t start, Lin is the main facilitator off the bench and he has an aggressive mentality to score. He’s been seeing minutes in the mid to high 20’s and that should continue to be the trend. Priced below 4k, Lin makes for a decent GPP dart against the Thunder.

DJ Augustin will start at PG for the Thunder after Russell Westbeast had surgery to repair his fractured cheekbone. In a 10 game stint starting for the Pistons, Augustin scored over 30 FP 7 times and over 40 FP 5 times. He’s only priced at 4.1k and he’ll be facing off against the Lakers giving him a great match-up. There’s not much more to say here besides the fact that he’ll be one of the most popular plays of the day tomorrow. Use that information as you please.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.14.40 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

George Hill‘s triple double was a pleasant surprise to see the least. In the past couple of games, Hill has made up for lost time this season returning 33+ FP in both games. Hill gets the seemingly favorable match-up against the Sixers in this game, but he didn’t fair too well against them last time and only put up 17 FP in 23 minutes of playing time. However, Hill is in rhythm right now and, if you believe this game will stay closer than the predicted spread of 11.5, he could pay off in a big way.

Mo Williams nearly dropped a 50 burger in his last game and he’s loving his role on the Hornets. In his 4 games playing for the Hornets the least amount of shots he’s taken is 15! John Legend will look to score early and often against the Magic and he’s one of my favorite high floor and high upside plays.

Rodney Stuckey lit up the Sixers to the tune of 44 FP in his last meeting and he’ll look to keep the pedal to the metal. He’s scored over 34 FP in 3 of his last 4 games and his bench role hasn’t kept him from producing solid value. Stuckey is one of the Pacers’ go to guys for offense and he’ll get his fair share of looks. The spread of 11.5 is a bit scary, but Stuckey’s consistent 40+ FP upside makes him a solid GPP dart.

Check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 3-1-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.10.24 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets are synonymous with unreliable nowadays and it would take a very brave person to play Lawson at this point. Despite seeing over 30 minutes of playing time in his last 3 games, Lawson exceeded 30 FP only once. The Nuggets’ players seem to have given up on Brian Shaw. Unless you want to be really contrarian, I’d advise against playing Lawson for your own peace of mind.

Tyreke Evans has notched 3 straight double double’s of points and assists and is enjoying his role as the primary ball handler for the Pelicans. He gets to match up against the aforementioned slumping Nuggets and will look to have a huge game against them. The worry here is whether the Nuggets will simply roll over for the Pelicans, but New Orleans will still be without the Brow and Ryan Anderson so hopefully this one can stay close. Reke has scored over 38 FP in his 3 past games and he’s one of my favorite plays.

Isaiah Thomas may have been disappointed when he found himself in a bench role, but he certainly hasn’t let that affect his production. The former Pizza Guy has scored over 33 FP in all of his games as a Celtic and that trend should continue against the Warriors. As a Warriors fan, I’m admittedly scared of IT2 and his ability to light the Warriors up. Since he’s coming off the bench, he’ll also avoid the defensive presence of Bogut which is a plus. IT2’s role seems to be growing for the Celtics and there hasn’t been much of an adjustment period at all. He makes for a solid mid tier play.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.01 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Jason Richardson‘s stats are from a small sample size, but he’s established himself a a key player for the Sixers. He has scored over 23 FP in 3 of the 4 games he has played and is a decent punt play that should knock down a few 3’s.

Ben McLemore is getting more shots with Boogie out and that’s great news for him. The drawback here is that he’ll be facing off against Wesley Matthews. Despite the poor match-up, he’s priced barely above minimum and makes for a good punt play.

Jimmy Butler is a good DFS play with DRose in and an amazing DFS play when DRose is out. Expect 40 minutes of solid work from Jimmy Minutes and play him with confidence.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.11 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

LeBron James is playing after being rested for a sore back.

Andre Iguodala is playing after being rested last game.

Solomon Hill is questionable with an illness.

Joffrey Lauvergne‘s stats are from a small sample size. Despite starting last game, he makes for a risky play as does every Nuggets player.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 9.15.21 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Pau Gasol  is probable with an illness. He should see an expanded offensive role with DRose out. It’s possible that Deandre Jordan will be guarding Pau instead of Spencer Hawes though, which is worrisome.

Draymond Green‘s tenacity on the court leads to a handful of steals and blocks every game and his rebounding ability belies his 6’7″ frame. With a player like BDD, you know he won’t take any plays off. Expect a good number of rebounds, a handful of assists, and some steals and blocks. If his 3 is falling, BDD will easily reach and exceed value.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.47.56 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Robin Lopez‘s price has fallen below 4k despite playing the same amount of minutes he did earlier in the year. As a reference, he was priced in the 5-6k range back in the day. RoLo has the added advantage of not having to defend Boogie and I expect he’ll easily pay off his low salary. This discount is too appealing to pass up in my eyes.

Andrew Bogut is playing on the front end of a back-to-back.

Nikola Vucevic has been extremely consistent recently and has strung together 5 straight performances of 35+ FP. Vucevic has played the Hornets 3 times this year and hasn’t scored below 30 FP in any of those games so there’s a decent record of consistency here. In 2 of those 3 games, he exceeded 40 FP. Vucevic isn’t very flashy, but he makes for a safe play.

Check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 2-28-15

Bargnani-Knicks(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.20.22 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Andrea Bargnani was inserted into the starting lineup in his last game and carried the Knicks to a double OT victory with his impressive double double. The former #1 overall pick racked up 49 FP in 36 minutes of playing time and he jacked up 20 shots. Since that was the Knicks’ first victory in their last 9 games, I’d expect Bargnani to stay in the starting lineup and he should be one of the main offensive weapons going forward. If you buy into the revenge game factor, the Knicks are also playing the Raptors. The minutes, opportunity, and price are all too favorable to overlook Bargnani.

Kris Humphries is out with a groin strain.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.20.33 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Rajon Rondo is playing coming off of a one game suspension. It’s never good to have a rift between a player and a coach though. Rondo may see depressed minutes even though he’s playing. This play seems ultra risky to me and Rondo’s recent production doesn’t seem to justify that risk.

Tyson Chandler is questionable with a hip contusion.

Danny Green has the potential to put up FP in a hurry via 3 pointers, steals, and blocks. The only question with him is: how many minutes will he see? In the past 2 games, Green has seen 32 and 12 minutes of playing time making him a risky play. However, Danny Green has 40 FP upside whenever he’s on the court. He’s a bit pricey on FanDuel, but this game has the highest over/under of the night and the risk may be worth it.

Brook Lopez has scored over 26 FP in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen 12 or more FGA in all 5 of those games. In his last game against the Mavs, Lopez put up 46 FP. He has a relatively high floor for a player with such high potential and the rewards seem to be well worth the risks for BroLo.

Check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 2-28-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.46.17 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Kyle Lowry is OUT and being rested.

Jeff Teague is OUT and being rested.

Langston Galloway came through last night after a low scoring and foul plagued first half. Despite playing in a double OT game, Langston saw only 34 minutes and much of that had to do with his foul trouble. Had he not been in foul trouble, Galloway probably would have seen 45+ minutes. Well, he’s priced in the lower 5k’s once again and he’s getting a fair share of the ball handling responsibilities in Calderon’s absence. He’s one of my favorite plays tomorrow since he’ll likely play whether the Knicks are keeping it close or not.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.20.53 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored over 29 FP and seen at least 36 minutes of playing time in each of his last 2 games. Heading into the All Star break, the Greek Freak was living up to his potential by filling up the stat sheet and scoring over 34 FP in 5 straight games. While his production has dipped a bit since that stretch, the Alphabet is still capable of insane production with his amount of playing time. His 6.4k price seems a bit modest with his floor and ceiling.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.21.03 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Kawhi Leonard seems to have worked his way out of his momentary funk and has scored above 36 FP in both of his last games while seeing over 35 minutes of playing time in both games as well. His cost is still relatively low compared to his usual upper 7k price tag. On the back end of a back to back, Kawhi may get more run due to his teammates getting Pop’d.

DeMarre Carrol is OUT and being rested.

Paul Pierce is playing coming back from a bruised knee.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.21.12 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Tim Duncan is in danger of being Pop’d on the back end of a back-to-back. Keep an eye out for news from the Spurs.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.21.23 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Al Horford is OUT and being rested.

Tyson Chandler is questionable with a hip contusion.

Brook Lopez has scored over 26 FP in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen 12 or more FGA in all 5 of those games. In his last game against the Mavs, Lopez put up 46 FP. He has a relatively high floor for a player with such high potential and the rewards seem to be well worth the risks for BroLo.

Check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

DraftKings NBA Ceiling Charts 2-28-15

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GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graphs to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.12.21 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Manu Ginobili has been seeing less minutes lately relative to his season average. Earlier in the season, he saw somewhere between 25-30 minutes and now he’s sitting squarely around 20 minutes per game. On a back end of a back-to-back, it’s possible Ginobili will be Pop’d. Buyer beware.

Danny Green has the potential to put up FP in a hurry via 3 pointers, steals, and blocks. The only question with him is: how many minutes will he see? In the past 2 games, Green has seen 32 and 12 minutes of playing time making him a risky play. However, Danny Green has 40 FP upside whenever he’s on the court and it may be worth the risk to roster him.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.37.46 PM*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

Brandon Knight‘s playing time has been solid with his new team, yet his production has been down compared to his days with the Bucks. Ceding the main ball handling responsibilities to Eric Bledsoe has certainly cut down on his stats, but the opportunity is still there for him to blow up given a hot game. Just keep in mind that most of the stats you see above are inflated for when Knight was the top dog in Milwaukee.

Jeff Teague is OUT and being rested.

Tim Duncan is in danger of being Pop’d on the back end of a back-to-back. Keep an eye out for news from the Spurs.

Brook Lopez has scored over 30 FP in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen 12 or more FGA in all 5 of those games. In his last game against the Mavs, Lopez put up 49 FP. He has a relatively high floor for a player with such high potential and the rewards seem to be well worth the risks for BroLo.

Rajon Rondo is playing coming off of a one game suspension. It’s never good to have a rift between a player and a coach though. Rondo may see depressed minutes even though he’s playing. This play seems ultra risky to me and Rondo’s recent production doesn’t seem to justify that risk.

Check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

DraftKings NBA Floor Charts 2-28-15

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Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

DraftKings

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.12.42 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Brandon Knight‘s playing time has been solid with his new team, yet his production has been down compared to his days with the Bucks. Ceding the main ball handling responsibilities to Eric Bledsoe has certainly cut down on his stats, but the opportunity is still there for him to blow up given a hot game. Just keep in mind that most of the stats you see above are inflated for when Knight was the top dog in Milwaukee.

Kyle Lowry is OUT and being rested.

Jeff Teague is OUT and being rested.

Dennis Schroder gets a huge bump with Jeff Teague being rested. He’s barely above minimum play and makes an excellent punt play.

Langston Galloway came through last night after a low scoring and foul plagued first half. Despite playing in a double OT game, Langston saw only 34 minutes and much of that had to do with his foul trouble. Had he not been in foul trouble, Galloway probably would have seen 45+ minutes. Well, he’s priced in the lower 5k’s once again and he’s getting a fair share of the ball handling responsibilities in Calderon’s absence. He’s one of my favorite plays tomorrow since he’ll likely play whether the Knicks are keeping it close or not.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.02.42 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Manu Ginobili has been seeing less minutes lately relative to his season average. Earlier in the season, he saw somewhere between 25-30 minutes and now he’s sitting squarely around 20 minutes per game. On a back end of a back-to-back, it’s possible Ginobili will be Pop’d. Buyer beware.

Danny Green has the potential to put up FP in a hurry via 3 pointers, steals, and blocks. The only question with him is: how many minutes will he see? In the past 2 games, Green has seen 32 and 12 minutes of playing time making him a risky play. However, Danny Green has 40 FP upside whenever he’s on the court and it may be worth the risk to roster him.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.12.58 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Kawhi Leonard seems to have worked his way out of his momentary funk and has scored above 38 FP in both of his last games while seeing over 35 minutes of playing time in both games as well. His cost is still relatively low compared to his usual upper 7k price tag. On the back end of a back to back, Kawhi may get more run due to his teammates getting Pop’d.

DeMarre Carroll is OUT and being rested.

Paul Pierce is playing coming back from a bruised knee.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 10.08.55 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Tim Duncan is in danger of being Pop’d on the back end of a back-to-back. Keep an eye out for news from the Spurs.

Kevin Garnett is playing despite being on a back-to-back.

Kris Humphries is out with a strained groin.

Amar’e Stoudemire is probable after being rested his previous game.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 9.13.14 PM*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

Al Horford is OUT and being rested.

Tyson Chandler is questionable with a hip contusion.

Check out our free DraftKings NBA lineup optimizer tool with additional player stats, historical game logs, and more.

FanDuel NBA Ceiling Charts 2-27-15

Corey+Brewer+Portland+Trail+Blazers+v+Houston+Rd8LFSSt3Wcl(1)

GPP (guaranteed prize pools) contests are large field tournaments that offer higher payouts by decreasing the number of winners that cash. While cash games (H2H and 50/50s) pay out the top 50%, GPPs often only pay out the top 20% or less. In this format, it’s best to target riskier, higher upside players in hopes of finding a low percentage owned player that crushes value.

When looking for high upside players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s ceiling. We can calculate a player’s ceiling by taking their season fantasy point average plus one standard deviation. The player’s ceiling tells us their fantasy point upside. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this ceiling 16% of the time.

Looking at a player’s ceiling, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the ceiling ratio (ceiling divided by price). The higher the ceiling ratio, the more upside fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players by ceiling ratio.

Disclaimer: these picks aren’t necessarily safe for your H2H and 50/50 games. They are high-risk high-reward picks that are intended to differentiate your lineup.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

Bargain Bin (< $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.15.31 PM

Joffrey Lauvergne – Note: small sample size.

Jason Richardson – Note: small sample size. Seeing minutes in the mid 20’s.

Andrea Bargnani – Note: small sample size. Seeing minutes in the mid 20’s. He’ll make sure that he gets his fair share of looks while he’s out there.

Corey Brewer has had over 35 FP in 2 of his last 3 games with Harden playing. Harden is currently questionable with a sprained ankle and, if Harden is out, Brewer stands to gain more minutes and looks.

Mid + (> $5,000)

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.15.41 PM

Mo Williams’ minutes took a dip last game, but prior to that he was seeing 38 minutes per game. The Hornets will be playing up in pace against the Celtics, but Williams will have to square off against a great defender in Marcus Smart. The shots and opportunities will be there for him though and he’s a bargain priced starting point guard.

Lou Williams is a boom or bust option that comes off the bench to do one thing: score. The Warriors/Raptors game has an initial over/under of 215 with a spread of 1. I could easily see the Raptors relying on their bench for scoring against the Warriors top rated defense.

Although Mario Chalmers’ production has fallen off lately, he’s still seeing over 30 minutes of playing time every game (barring foul trouble). As a GPP dart, Rio can rack up the FP in steals and 3 pointers. He’s a risky play given his spot in the Heat pecking order, but the opportunity is there.

 

*Score value = 67% season ceiling value + 33% L10 ceiling value

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, odds, season and recent performance, values, and much more!

FanDuel NBA Floor Charts 2-27-15

russell-westbrook-nba-playoffs-memphis-grizzlies-oklahoma-city-thunder(1)

Cash game contests provide the most stable way to increase your bankroll. To win in cash games, you need to beat half of the field whether that is one opponent (H2H) or a group of opponents (50/50). In this format, it’s best to target consistent players.

When looking for consistent players, a great place to start is by looking at a player’s floor. We can calculate a player’s floor by taking their season fantasy point average minus one standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, we can expect a player to exceed this floor 84% of the time, which makes the floor a very useful method of measuring player consistency.

Looking at a player’s floor, however, isn’t useful by itself because DFS beasts like the Brow, KD, and LeBron would top the list. A better way to approach the problem is to take the player’s price into consideration by calculating the floor ratio (floor divided by price). The higher the floor ratio, the more consistent fantasy points we’re getting per dollar we’re paying.

We’ve provided you with the top rated players per position by floor ratio.

Hint: Click on the graph to maximize the image.

 

FanDuel

PG

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.15.51 PM

The Warriors/Raptors game has a 215 over/under and a spread of 1 initially. It’s very possible that Bogut and Iguodala sit this game. If they do, the Warriors will need to rely on their offense more than their defense. Steph Curry will have his fingerprints all over this game either way. In his last 3 games against the Raptors, Curry has returned 58, 45 and 54 FP.

The Thunder offense rests solely on Russell Westbeast’s shoulders right now and his per minute production is insane. What I love most about RWB is his aggressive mentality. He won’t be taking any plays off and he’ll get all the touches he wants. You’ll have to pay a pretty penny, but I have a hard time seeing him scoring below 50 FP in this match up with the Blazers.

John Wall hasn’t looked right lately. He’s reported as having a jammed thumb currently and it may have affected him these past few games. In addition, this game against the 76ers could get out of hand quickly. Despite his enticing price, I’ll be looking elsewhere to pay up for PG on Friday.

Langston Galloway has gotten over 36 minutes of playing time in each of his last 3 games and his role on the Knicks is solid. Jose Calderon just went down with an Achilles injury, so Galloway’s ball handling responsibilities could go up. With the added touches and his amount of playing time, 5.3k is under priced in my opinion.

SG

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.15.57 PM

Jason Richardson – Note: small sample size. Seeing minutes in mid 20’s.

James Harden – Questionable: ankle.

SF

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.16.07 PM

Wilson Chandler – Probable: hip.

Depending on the status of Iguodala, Harrison Barnes may see some extra run against the Raptors. He’s currently seeing time around 30 minutes and could see that bumped by 5 minutes or more. HB is only priced at 4.3k and is a low risk punt play if Andre is out.

Boogie is currently listed as out for Friday’s game. As it stands, the keys to the Kings offense will belong to Rudy Gay. Gay will see all the minutes and shots that he wants, the only caveat being the Spurs’ stingy defense in the form of Kawhi Leonard.

Speaking of Kawhi Leonard, he finally saw more than 30 minutes in his last game against the Blazers. Seeing that amount of time, Kawhi is usually priced in the upper 7k’s. Assuming his increased minutes stick, Kawhi can be had at a great discount.

PF

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.16.16 PM

Joffrey Lauvergne – Note: small sample size.

UPDATE: Pau Gasol is OUT with an illness

With the Derrick Rose unfortunately out with a torn meniscus, the Bulls have to make up for his offensive production. Pau Gasol took 20 shots in his last game against the slow paced Hornets. The last time Gasol took 20 shots or more was in early January. Gasol will face off against the Minnesota Timberwolves who are top 10 in pace in the NBA so he should see more than 20 FGA. The only drawback with playing Gasol is relying on the TWolves to keep the game competitive. The spread is currently set at 6.5.

C

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 6.16.34 PM

Andrew Bogut – Questionable: rest.

 

*Score value = 67% season floor value + 33% L10 floor value

For further analysis, check out our free FanDuel NBA lineup optimizer tool. We provide additional stats like DvP, odds, season and recent performance, values, and much more!